Indices look set to go for (maybe one last) blowoff run...

Some S'pore stocks look interesting...

Firstly, Datacraft's stock price has meandered between 75c and US$1.30 for the last three years, even as the company's order book, balance sheet and profitability has improved. It looks set for a big breakout that will finally take it towards US$2.00 nad perhaps beyond.

I still recall fondly selling all my holdings for US$1.82, just four ticks from what turned out to be the high for the last five years. That was back when the US Dollar was trading at S$1.72. Now it has fallen to S$1.51 and the stock has fallen back to US$1.16. If I held on till now, my 'loss' would now be S$5,300 and that's not counting the time value of money.

















The base-building seen in the chart should pay off soon if one is vested at US$1.20 or lower.

In Malaysia, Perstima stock is resting atop its 30- day moving average, promising good things to come. This company has a near monopoly on tin-plate production and has been transformed, via restructuring,from a atrociously-managed company whose stock is highly speculative, to a well-managed focused business, with a low free-float, and has become heavily insider-held.


















If you are betting on another boom in IT-related stocks a la 1999, albeit on a smaller scale, look at Mesiniaga, whose stock touched a zenith of RM18.90 in the dot.com heydays.


















Now, it's trading at close to its NTA, with the low volume indicative of the unwillingness of majority shareholders to sell at these absymal prices.Net profit fell 10% in 2006 compared to the previous year, far smaller than the plunge in its share price.


Eng is anther IT-play that I'm buying into. It rose 4c to RM1.85 on Friday and now has a bullish chart.

















Proton still looks good despite the fillip on Friday.

















Other stocks I've entered the fray of are Utusan Melayu and Borneo Oil.




















On the SGX, mega-speculatives that haven't at least doubled are my picks. Particularly, Medtecs, Acma and Firstlink.

A rather bare week, but I'm contented with my Dow calls...

INTC: +13.0%

MSFT: +8.5%

BA: + 5.6%

HD: +4.7%

GE: +4.2%

AIG: + 4.1%

since my BUY and STRONG BUY recommendations on these stocks.

Of course, my SELL call on XOM completely bombed, as Exxon Mobil stock has risen 6.6% since that call.


However, in realtime, I've not done so well on the S'pore and Malaysian markets as first, Hengxin and Longcheer dropped, and then, OSIM bombed.

But Jurong Tech was an accurate call.

In M'sia , I only took profit on one stock: a 16% return on Polytower Ventures over five months.


And of course, I'm extremely please with my Proton BUY call, for it has rewarded me with a 4.4% gain since I allocated the same percentage of my Malaysian portfolio into it.

Hoping to trade my way out of my current job...

Enough of being scared, of feeling useless.

I want to invest boldly, aiming to catch the last big blowoff top. A run-up that will prove to be both fast and viciously furious. Where the cash I have is just enough to cover the contra losses should my trade fail.

I want to enter Fischer Tech, trading at 26.5c, which is 10% below its year high,47% below its 2-year high and 67% below its all time high,and only 39% above its all-time low, back in the good ol' SARS days. At a PE of below 10,an NTA of over 30c and only 229 million shares in issue, this is an undervalued gem to me.

The second stock I want to own is TSH(formerly TPA Strategic), as a play on the SESDAQ bull-run. With an NTA roughly equal to Fischer's, and with even fewer outstanding shares, it has a PE of below 15. This play is of course much riskier, as the stock has not seen prices higher than 50c.

Yes, the performances of these two companies are erratic,but my theory has always been that the laggards spurt up on high volume in the last part of a big bull-run, which this 2003-2007 cycle clearly is.

Of course, I hope to add on to my current holdings of Yaan, which is still the brightest gem on the SESDAQ for me.

I am also currently eyeing Yellow Pages, Popular and Fuyu.

Yaan up 9.8% on the day, over 10% in my portfolio

My top 5 Dow recommendations have performed as follows:

INTC:14.8%
JNJ:8.0%
HD:6.6%
MSFT:4.6%
AIG:3.3%

four of five of them outpacing the Dow Jones Industrial's 4.5% rise in the same period, to just a fraction below a new threshold of 13 000 points.


Just to update, I took a 11% hike in Surface Mount, a 15.7% rise in See Hup Seng and a 100% rise in FHTK this past week, while entering Firstlink and SunBiz.


In Malaysia, I entered Proton, Psiptek, KUB and KFM, while selling the last of my PMBTech, R'view and TDEX.

My prognosis for the Dow to revisit 12 800 looks imminent

Today, the Dow closed less than 30 points shy of its record high in February, as I had forecast(see 'My case for the Dow to retest 12 800' entry).


However, I am not making much this round, with only a 12.3% gain on I-Bhd shares yesterday. FHTK of course is still showing a paper profit of 100% for me.

FHTK registers a record volume of 860,912 lots

It rose 100% today to $0.02, trouncing the previous record held by Centillion of over 600 million shares.
This could be the breakout all specuvestors in this company have hoped for, heralding potential gains as it marches to its target of $0.05.

Technically, FHTK was last traded at 2 cents almost a year ago, in May '06. The historic high was shortly after listing in '97, at S$1.02, meaning that the stock price has tumbled 98% since that high a decade ago. In the meantime, rights issues and placements at higher prices have diluted the stock, and given it a massive free float of over 5 billion shares out of a total issued capital of over 6 billion.

The price averaged over 5c in 2004, and slightly over 2c in 2005, compared with an average over its lifetime of 20c.



























A shareholder has been buying as seen here:






















On Malaysia, I sold Unico-Desa plantations stock for a 6.7% gain in two months. JAKS continued to rise another 31% after I had sold it, but I never regret taking profits, however small.

The day before, I sold Farm's Best(a star riser in 2005) for a 15% gain in less than two months, while Equation was sold to lock in an 11% rise in two weeks.


The KL Composite Index continues to stay magically above the almost impossible-to-conceive 1,300 mark, the first time it has visited these stratospheric heights since January 1994(and it was only above that level for a day or two).I have taken the breaching of this level, and the brief visit to 1314, the historic closing high on Jan 5 1994 as a sell signal of sorts,and, as a result, I have freed up cash equivalent to 20% of my current portfolio value to catch the laggard Second Boarders and MESDAQers.

Ironically, some blue-chip KLCI components stay stubbornly below their historic and recent highs. They include YTL,currently down about 10% from its record, and TM, down 6% and 43% from its recent and historic high respectively.

I am hoping for great things to come from D'nonce Technology, as it is exhibiting a trio of favourable factors: substantial shareholder buying, a stock price below NTA, and an improving trend of results.























Technically, D'nonce looks set for a break of the recent high of RM1. Once that is done convincingly, it should scale towards RM1.20 and then RM1.50.I don't make a stock almost 10% of my portfolio for nothing.


On the SGX, See Hup Seng moved a little, while Hengxin and Yaan disappointed.
Jurong Tech is my next target(I only made $240 from its first rebound after timidly buying 3 lots at $80 and selling at $91).

Intel soars, helping the Dow stay positive.

INTC is now up 7.2% since my buy recommendation, while HD has advanced 4.0% in the same period. JNJ is holding on to a 2.3% gain.

On Bursa, I sold some WTHorse for a 6.0% gain in two weeks and I-Bhd for a 3.8% gain in two months. Megan reaped 12.8% in a month for me.

My best performing stock was MKLand, which vaulted 30.1% today.

Not spectacular results, but I have freed up another RM6 000 in my Public Bank margin account for other trading opportunities.


On the SGX, my Equation is almost 10% higher in a week.

OIB advances 7.7% by midday

Pondering whether to realise the 12.1% gain over my cost price.


Here are the percentage gains and losses since my calls on some Dow stocks at the end of March '07:

INTC: 4.1%
HD: 3.6%
MSFT:2.8%
JNJ:2.5%
IBM:0.1%
AIG:unchg
T:-0.2%
GE:-1.6%

Changes since sell recommendations-
XOM : +0.9%



Today, See HS seems to be stirring to life, but Hengxin dropped back below my cost, while Equation is holding at 18.5c.


5 pm update: D'nonce, one of the heaviest components of my Bursa portfolio, advanced over 4% today, but is still below my average cost.Tis a strange stock, having never gone higher than RM1.60 since its listing despite having only 45.1m shares in issue.

Equation stays as my lucky stock.

The abovementioned was jolted to life again today, touching a high of 19c, barely a week after I entered at 17.5c. Thus, my streak of luck continues with this company.

Entered Hengxin today at 56c when I saw it finally moving after a long hiatus, only to see it close higher at 57c.

In Malaysia, I had some good profits, selling PMBTech at prices ranging from 84c to 87c as it vaulted another 11.1%, realising a gross return of 36% over fifteen months.












The chart shows that PMB stock has advanced 70% from 50c to my average sale price of 85c so I thought it prudent to take profits.

JAKS equalled this daily gain of 11% when I sold it at 68c, realising a gain of 26% over five months. Kuchai was sold for a 16% return over a month.













As you can see from JAKS chart above, it has also vaulted over 70% since the low on March 5th.


Today's realised profit on Bursa amounted to around RM2,200, despite only about RM12 000 in sell trades, so I am plenty contented.


On the SGX, I'm betting heavily on FTHK.


IBM is my new buy call on a Dow component:

Next week looks promising, but take it with a pinch of timely puts

Many second-liners on the SGX and Bursa Malaysia look promising for next week.

Those I'm into(but they're no Hongfoks, HPLs or WingTais) are OSIM, Longcheer, Yaan, DMX, See HupSeng and PCA Tech. I have never believed in chasing counters that have already advanced 50% or more over the space of less than 6 months, though I'm fully aware(thanks to a book called 'The Successful Investor' which I recommend to all my 'clients') that such strong stocks usually experience the best gains.

This is probably because I think the market will top out sometime this year, and within the next month or so to boot.

Malaysia offers a far greater variety of bargains with greater potential upside, though my calls this month and last have been far from scintillating.

BJToto and TM, the only blue-chips I have in my portfolio, are not budging much.


However, the outperformance of just a handful of stocks in my portfolio more than makes up for the rest treading water.

Currently, my heaviest bet is on D'nonce Technology, listed in Bursa, with a 9.2% weightage. Other significant components include MPI and Borneo Oil while a smattering of small amounts of Second Board and MESDAQ companies litter the portfolio.

On the SGX, I hope to enter Hengxin and Plastoform this week.

ABR looks like it's poised for a breakout as well.

Here are some charts for your perusal:

Assessing my calls on US stocks since the last trading day of March '07

In order of merit -

HD : Up 3.5%
MSFT: Up 2.7%
INTC: Up 2.2%
JNJ : Up 2.1%
BA : Up 1.7% since I reversed my call from sell to BUY


The duds -

GE : DOWN 1.1%
T : DOWN 0.3%
XOM: UP 2.0%
AIG: UNCHG(Upgrade to STRONG BUY)

Yaan is finally moving(I think)

Rose on relatively high volume of just over a million shares to a closing year high of 21.5c.

Sold Jurong Tech at 91c on Thursday after entering at 80c on Monday.


On Malaysia, it has been rather slim pickings since my euphoric Mar 6 trades, but Kuchai and PMBTech, 1.6% and 3% of my Malaysian portfolio respectively, are up 18% and 21% respectively as of today's close.

Incipient breakout for See Hup Seng.

Based on the high volume close to the highest leve of the year, and insider buying even at these lofty levels, I forsee this stock breaking out soon.

Some hits, some misses...

Misses: MSFT(-0.47%); Consolation- lower volume than the previous day; maintain BUY.
INTC( unchg); HOLD
AIG(-0.10%) ; Same comment as MSFT; maintain BUY
XOM(+0.94%) ; Maintain SELL, as top could be still forming.
GE(-0.20%); Maintain BUY; as the low-volume drop has brought it closer to a major support at close to the 200-day MA of $35.Downward cross of Stochs indicator a cause for concern though.
JNJ(-0.27%); Maintain SCREAMING BUY; much lower volume than previous days' prices.Bullish divergences remain.


Hits: HD(+0.14%);Reaffirm technical picture;SCREAMING BUY
BA(-0.09%);Change call, courtesy of doji on 020407 lying on uptrend line;BUY
T(+0.08%) ; Reduce to HOLD.