Battle lines, everybody!!!

 GE price & transaction volume as @ 2:40pm 13th May 2024:

There is certainly more than one person/institution who believes they can force OCBC's hand to raise their offer price of S$25.60 significantly to approach the so-called embedded value of S$36 in the 3rd takeover battle for Great Eastern in the last two decades going back to 2004,  with the price touching an intra-day high of S$26.22!

As the math goes today, the banking giant needs to corral another 7,557,241 shares to breach the 90% threshold to conduct a mandatory buyout & delisting, something it failed to accomplish in the previous two attempts. A certain Wong sibling pair holding 5,221,368 shares between them seem to be against the current offer, the former buying another 10,500 recently to consolidate his position at No.2 on the large holder ranking behind only the bank itself. The 3rd & 5th-ranked holders, Kuchai & Sungei Bagan, have held their shares since GE's listing over 50 years ago so are likely on the fence, although their loose affiliation to OCBC via the Lee Rubber nexus may sway them to accept the tabled price.

Of the remaining 44.81 million shares of unknown bias towards/against the offer, only slightly under 17% of them need to tilt their votes in OCBC's favour to start the ball rolling inexorably towards delisting, which I would assess at a 70/30 probability.

May the force be with the bold souls who dare to buy above the offer price!!!

*the writer has a small position in all 3 stocks mentioned above

 

 

Kuchai's significant 3.032 million stake in insurer Great Eastern is being courted by 88% owner OCBC for a sum equivalent to its entire market cap!

The upper trendline points to a theoretical $2.80 target, while the reverse H&S points to the $2.47-2.50 level.

 

At least 2 interventions by the BoJ ? Temporarily ending my cheapened yen shopping spree online!