Unbeknownst to me, until now, a TAKEOVER offer for my Soshin Electric was made 3 days ago by Kamaya Electric!

 

The offeror is a Taiwanese company & the TOB is being made at a 32% discount to the co's book value. I originally speculated that it would make a quasi- double bottom formation spanning the 2020-2023 period but instead it declined another -18% to finally bottom around Christmas. In early March there was a strong intra-day surge to ¥366 on higher than usual volume: apparently insiders were busy snapping up the shares ahead of  the TOB announcement. My original prediction of a double bottom was vindicated, BUT  on the daily timeframe instead of the monthly one, spanning the Dec/Feb period at ¥283 / ¥284. Only on digging deeper did I become aware of a prior ¥460 offer by the same co. in Dec '20 that resulted in Kamaya replacing NGK as the 40.4% major shareholder ( the latter retaining a 5% stake), which nonetheless did not prevent the share price decline to below ¥300.

The offer is at a 38% premium to my entry price almost 7 months ago, with one tiny dividend already pocketed. The chances of an increased offer is 40% by my estimation since the co. recommends the TOB. It's my THIRD takeover involvement after Teraoka Seisakusho in October & Chuo Built in December. The former ended its 37-year history as a listed company earlier this month, my 2nd biggest Japanese earner in my 7th year of involvement in the Tokyo Stock Exchange.