EQUITYOPPORTUNITY

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Incredible Streak : Shiseido 資生堂 Wings it to 1,132 In A Row 🎌 ! {19th Feb '25}

    A simply GLORIOUS Thursday! Long-stalked Shiseido 資生堂, a 🎌 entity & one of the biggest global cosmetics makers , is SOLD after 11 weeks & 1 dividend captured, the 23rd scorer in '25, 8th 🗾 & 79th🎌nearly 92 months into my 🗾🎏💹 $-minting odyssey!!! A paper loss of almost $1,000 erased within less than 2 days as the stock turned abruptly from a > decade low of ¥2,307.5 to bounce as high as ¥2,684 yesterday and a peak of ¥2,872 today, with my sell order getting filled on the way UP from a morning low of ¥2,630.5 to its intra-day summit, before succumbing to heavy volume profit-taking, the highest turnover EVER of 34,606,200 shares & dwarfing the previous record of 19,548,200 shares traded on Aug 9th 2024 as well as three other 10 million +/- share days in 2013, 2008 & 1997!!!

Apparently, a UK fund, Independent Franchise Partners LLP , increased its holding to over 5% [>20,800,000 shares] as per mandatory exchange filings & buyers are hopeful of Western-style shareholder activism, a phenomenon increasingly common in this once insular market. I find it more plausible that Japanese diehard speculators were frantically hustling for profits & short-sellers of 649,100 shares as of Valentine's Day were being squeezed. I calmly disembarked as gamblers scrambled to get on board [ or off board in the case of short-sellers], having already bagged the last ¥30 dividend with China & down-marketing headwinds still dogging the business.

A perfect excuse to exit an overvalued stock trading well above book & more likely than not to cut dividends further as the Chinese property bubble bust, echoing Japan's own 2-decade long experience in the 1990-2000s, looks set to drag on for years, if not decades to come!

My best guess drawing from over 3 decades of stockmarket experience & 8 years in the country is that this stock will likely re-test the ¥2,500 level in the coming weeks amid the dearth of further market-moving news, compounded by the 1/3 slashing of the customary dividend for the coming half-year. 




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