Today I decided to finally muster the courage to 'catch a falling knife' in Japan called Shiseido after having watched it for a few months dropping from ¥7,160 in Jun '23, then falling through ¥6,000 in Aug '23, ¥5,000 & ¥4,000 in Oct & Dec the same yr, rebound back to ¥5,272 on 6.6.24, crash back to ¥3,055 in Aug, rebound back to back to ¥4,050 in Sep, fall even lower to ¥2,710 in Nov after poor quarterly results & a forecast of a 72% drop in FY 2024 profit. Today it dropped another 7% after the unveiling of a 2025/26 Action Plan with a lower 3% growth forecast than the market expectation & I finally decided it was an unmissable opportunity. My reasons to finally buy are:

 1. Resistance-turned-support of '07 high & '15-'16 consolidation zone, when revenue was lower & EPS comparable & ROE slightly higher

 2. Possible 2025/26 recovery in consumer sentiment in major mkt China via purchases by JPN tourists taking advantage of cheap yen

3. Dividend of ¥30 upcoming ex- Dec 27 

4. Norwegian SWF, which has a reputation for investment savvy, has built its stake to 2.72% from negligible in the past few yrs. 

5 Short-term RSI divergence that has produced 17% & 32% rebounds in Dec '23 & Sep '24. 

I also dug up Shiseido's financials going back to 1976 by buying old company handbooks from JPN & the US & it seems to be cheap relative to book, revenue, EPS & div yield compared to the lows from those decades. The peak of ¥9,250 in Jun '18 was sandwiched by its highest ever EPS of ¥153.7 in FY'18 & ¥184.2 in FY'19. As usual, I'm always prepared for any stock I buy to drop a further 10-30% like my Yamaha did 1 day after entry on 'Black Monday 2024'.

The co. has also made losses back in both FY '01 & '02 as well as FY '05,'13 & '20 so this time is likely far from the most dire that the company has experienced.

At the same time, I am testing the viability of trading rebounds off intermediate lows to perpetuate my precious winning run with an estimated +/- 20% error margin.