Miracle Streak : Koito Manufacturing 小糸製作所 is the 4th🎌in '26 & the 117th🎌 since '17 after a 16-month Wait ! {9th Feb '26}

 

Despite nearly ending a few months ago in bearish conditions, the miracle advances ONE MORE DAY, as storied Koito Manufacturing 小糸製工所 rides the unstoppablebull market & delivers the 117th scalp in that country since 2017...disgorging ¥6,021 in dividends in the interim 17 months!Yen earnings far exceed '20 & are already breathing down the neck of '18, '19 & '22!!

Miracle Streak : Berjaya Corporation's free warrants 2026/2031 are partially SOLD to clinch 1,375 in a row ! {6th Feb '26}

25 days post-listing, free warrants of long-held Berjaya Corporation are partially SOLD for market trading income on the 1,375th day uninterrupted. In , recently acquired Kao 花王 & Koito Manufacturing 小糸製作所 recover from sharp dips due to market panic to finish nearly unchanged, Fujifilm 富士フイルム closes ¥112 off its low, while long-stalked Kawai Musical 河合楽器 finishes 1.3% higher after a fall to 17 ticks below my maiden entry yesterday! 

🎌 Stock Focus : Kawai Musical Instruments 河合楽器製作所 [7952]

 

As can be seen from the snapshots in '58,'76,'78,'90,'91,'96,'98,'16, '19 & '23, the piano maker, tuner, music school & OEM for musical instrument metal part's book value & capital adequacy[CAR] have increased steadily over time as well as cumulatively +64% & 16% points respectively compared to 3 decades ago [note the increasing losses in the consecutive years '94 till '96]. In 1996, Kawai, on top of waning demand for upright pianos in the US & Japan, was also hobbled by 'endaka' or yen strength while the opposite situation currently should contribute to improving results, EPS having taken a sharp dip to ¥47 last year, down from a record ¥587, then ¥427 & ¥323.7 in the previous years '22-'24. 

Curiously, the stock more than doubled by June '18  from mid-'17 even though its EPS only rose 26% from '17-'19  & then nearly doubled by July '21 perhaps anticipating the +95% rise in EPS from '21-'22. The sole dividend in March has increased 27% since that EPS record 4 years ago & stands 90% higher than 30 years ago when earnings were spotty despite turnover being 20% lower now, yet projected '26 revenue is still 39% above its lowest level in '13 & only 35% below its all-time record of  ¥117.675 billion in 1991. This forecast figure of  ¥76 billion was first surpassed in '86 when the NTA was 35% lower. The latest Grahamian net-net per share is about ¥1,856, compared to -ve working capital in 1998, when borrowings were 7.5x higher. The ¥520 low in '02, which amazingly matched the 1958 low four years after listing, was printed in the midst of big impairment & restructuring losses of (¥3.342 billion),(¥2.715 billion) & (¥7.077 billion) in '02 - '04, causing NTA to plunge to ¥455 in '05 [ low of ¥320 in '04], when CAR bottomed out at 12.7% before rising to 28-43% in the next 8 years. Dividends halted in the 5 years between '02-'06.

 

 I bought it today after stalking the stock for many months & was delighted to get a fill at  ¥2,778, just two ticks above the intraday low & with 63% of the commission discounted by the close. This is a price barely above the '95 low of ¥2,750, when the yen's strength was a headwind rather than the tailwind which it is now in light of the export ratio exceeding 40%.

Possible risks? The de facto China boycott of Japanese exports due to the recent political spat & maybe incursion into high quality piano-making by that country. Also interesting is the fact that my entry point was first surpassed way back in 1960[!] before the price declined nearly 90% from its 1961 peak of ¥3,870 by 1969. The old record was approached once again in 1973, followed by a 46% drop by the tail end of the 1974 bear market. It rose above this entry level price the next year & did not revisit this price despite a 65% decline from the 1976 fresh record of ¥8,180 in the following 5 years. Post '85 Plaza Accord, the stock nearly quintupled in the Bubble Era to set a fresh high of ¥15,200 by Feb '90. Based just on the intervals between historic highs, Kawai's next peak could come in '30 -'31, perhaps on the wave of what some project as 100,000 points on the Nikkei index!

Another area of concern is that free cash flow is (¥3.989 billion), accompanied by operating cashflow of (¥1.698 billion) in '25.  

A 44% discount to book that I obtained, backed by a forecast EPS that is double '25's figure, plus the maintained 3.4% dividend, will be comprise a buffer of safety for this investment choice that could bear fruit as early as March!

*As an aside, I have honed my piano playing skills on a Kawai instrument that has lasted 45 years & still works well despite some very minor issues: a testament to the quality of their product!

Miracle Streak : #8 Tomei Consolidated Exits the Portfolio ! {5th Feb '26}

 Goldsmith & jeweler Tomei is finally released from my grasp as gold plunges below $5000 once again...it has helped perpetuate the marathon many times in all of the years of this decade, save 2021!

Miracle Streak : WTK comes through a 16th time in the last half year ! {4th Feb '26}

 

Remnant shares from a re-entry around 70c are resold close to 79c for a revel-worthy 1,373 days in a row! Thus, 6,800 shares still trapped at a high price of  over $1 are nearly completely paid up with perhaps less than $300 outstanding.

Miracle Streak : A most Unlikely Winner emerges in Matsumoto マツモト, the 3rd🎌 of the Year & the 116th since July 2017! {3rd Feb '26}

 Today, Japan's Matsumoto マツモト , a shaky microcap bought a week after my '25 birthday that was down 38% at its worst point after Christmas, debuts at a very respectable 18th place[kicking Toyota down to 19th!] among what is now 116

contributors since '17 & the 3rdin the new year: taking the baton from S'pore's Sunright in the marathon's 67th month! The BEST trading gain thus far in 2026!!!

Latest Japanese targets:

Eidai, which went bankrupt in 1978 at a last quotation of  ¥51, returned to the Tokyo market after an almost 30 year restructuring, and now trades at a 85% discount to projected '26 revenue compared to a 92% discount at the time of its delisting. Interestingly, it has only 30% of its original amount of shares outstanding but trades for a steep 76.3% discount to its book value & a healthy 4.2% dividend yield [compared to 1.5% in 1973 before it was halved in '74 & then eliminated by '75]. Its '23 debt load was ¥23 billion[ compared to ¥75.3 billion in '77!], giving it a cash:debt ratio of 28% & a capital adequacy[CAR] of 43.8%. Since then, its book value has advanced 10% & CAR has popped over 50% while cash:debt has improved. Treasury & biz association shares total about 18.7% of its outstanding scrip of 46.783 million compared to less than 18% in '23.

Miracle Streak : Sunright returns to contribute after 56 months ! {2nd Feb '26}

 With another pesky market holiday, I turn to S'pore,amid tumbling markets worldwide to lock in a narrow gain made possible by quadrupling down on a remnant 2020 position last year : big 2017-2018 winner Sunright shines on the marathon once again after its last contribution 56 months ago, which sealed 207 days in a row together with Theta Edge !

🎌 Stock Focus : CVS Bay Area [2687]

 

The company used to operate convenience stores as a Lawson franchisee but sold most of its stores to the former in 2018, realizing a one-off record EPS of ¥770 in Feb '19 . It now runs only 7 stores & mainly operates 6 capsule hotels & a main BAY Hotel complex with easy access to Tokyo Disney Resort. Other minor business segments include mansion front, cleaning & real estate management services. I am targetting purchase to earn the Feb & Aug dividends of ¥10 each, comprising a yield of 1.5-1.9% each half year. 

It's interesting to note that the major downtrends from '06-'11 & from '13 to '20 which lasted about 6 years & 6.5 years respectively may suggest to some that the next major bottom would occur around Aug '29 based on the most recent peak in Aug '23.  

On a separate more somber note, a gold bug Clive Thompson, who was obviously unsettled by the vicious plunge in the metals markets on Friday, analyzed all the Dow crashes going back to 1885 & the gold & silver market  crashes going back to 2000 & these are his data results: