Miracle Streak : Black Horse Timberwell emerges to secure 1,380 for the Record ! {13th Feb '26}

 

Timberwell, which I didn't know was a takeover target until last night, thankfully, scores a hat-trick of takeovers since X'mas : after Sawafuji Electric 澤藤電機 & Guocoland M'sia...inching towards TRIPLING the old '17-'18 record run which lasted 46 months!

Miracle Streak : Bermaz Hat3ricks in a Fortnight months after 🎌 Mazda マツダ! {12th Feb '26}

 

Months after supplierMazda's contribution, Bermaz Auto achieves a hat-trick to drive the record forward with a quick 1-day trade [bought 80.5c yesterday - sold 84.5c today] that rewards a short-term hunch on the stock's direction!

Miracle Streak : KHInd Wins for the 1st time Ever to clinch 1,378 Days Successively ! {11th Feb '26}

 

The local home appliance maker debuts in my winners' circle for a maiden win after a fortuitous purchase at $1.33 last month from small holders dumping in desperation & with small buyers suddenly emerging at the day's highest bids, I unload 2/5ths onto these to reach 1,378 in a row!

So Appreciative of 206.35 Months of Rental Freedom!

 These savings have contributed immeasurably to my financial freedom journey, comprising at least $250,000 in extra capital that I have invested to the best of my ability, bringing 31 years of experience both sweet & bitter to bear upon my incrementally increasing effectiveness as a wealth manager. Together with realized market gains & other synchronistic sources of abundance, I have earned at least $1.25 million to buffer past, present & future expenditures.

A fitting reward after 160 months of enduring the rentier class while slavishly following the ultimately defeating cultural narrative!

Despite the undesirable market contrast last year that has flowed on into 2026, the surprisingly miraculous unbroken run of trading gains is heading towards 67 months, this longest marathon of will & magically divine orchestration, almost a third of the said duration of rental freedom ...my version of the miracle of loaves & fishes!

Miracle Streak : Post-takeover offer Guocoland M'sia gets sold again for $1.06...4 ticks below the lowball bid ! {10th Feb '26}

 

Takeover target Guocoland [M] is relied upon again today to extend the run that began from the originally scheduled start of the '20 Tokyo Summer Olympics until the current '26 Milan-Cortina Games & remains unbroken against stupendous odds!

Miracle Streak : Koito Manufacturing 小糸製作所 is the 4th🎌in '26 & the 117th🎌 since '17 after a 16-month Wait ! {9th Feb '26}

 

Despite nearly ending a few months ago in bearish conditions, the miracle advances ONE MORE DAY, as storied Koito Manufacturing 小糸製工所 rides the unstoppablebull market & delivers the 117th scalp in that country since 2017...disgorging ¥6,021 in dividends in the interim 17 months!Yen earnings far exceed '20 & are already breathing down the neck of '18, '19 & '22!!

Miracle Streak : Berjaya Corporation's free warrants 2026/2031 are partially SOLD to clinch 1,375 in a row ! {6th Feb '26}

25 days post-listing, free warrants of long-held Berjaya Corporation are partially SOLD for market trading income on the 1,375th day uninterrupted. In , recently acquired Kao 花王 & Koito Manufacturing 小糸製作所 recover from sharp dips due to market panic to finish nearly unchanged, Fujifilm 富士フイルム closes ¥112 off its low, while long-stalked Kawai Musical 河合楽器 finishes 1.3% higher after a fall to 17 ticks below my maiden entry yesterday! 

🎌 Stock Focus : Kawai Musical Instruments 河合楽器製作所 [7952]

 

As can be seen from the snapshots in '58,'76,'78,'90,'91,'96,'98,'16, '19 & '23, the piano maker, tuner, music school & OEM for musical instrument metal part's book value & capital adequacy[CAR] have increased steadily over time as well as cumulatively +64% & 16% points respectively compared to 3 decades ago [note the increasing losses in the consecutive years '94 till '96]. In 1996, Kawai, on top of waning demand for upright pianos in the US & Japan, was also hobbled by 'endaka' or yen strength while the opposite situation currently should contribute to improving results, EPS having taken a sharp dip to ¥47 last year, down from a record ¥587, then ¥427 & ¥323.7 in the previous years '22-'24. 

Curiously, the stock more than doubled by June '18  from mid-'17 even though its EPS only rose 26% from '17-'19  & then nearly doubled by July '21 perhaps anticipating the +95% rise in EPS from '21-'22. The sole dividend in March has increased 27% since that EPS record 4 years ago & stands 90% higher than 30 years ago when earnings were spotty despite turnover being 20% lower now, yet projected '26 revenue is still 39% above its lowest level in '13 & only 35% below its all-time record of  ¥117.675 billion in 1991. This forecast figure of  ¥76 billion was first surpassed in '86 when the NTA was 35% lower. The latest Grahamian net-net per share is about ¥1,856, compared to -ve working capital in 1998, when borrowings were 7.5x higher. The ¥520 low in '02, which amazingly matched the 1958 low four years after listing, was printed in the midst of big impairment & restructuring losses of (¥3.342 billion),(¥2.715 billion) & (¥7.077 billion) in '02 - '04, causing NTA to plunge to ¥455 in '05 [ low of ¥320 in '04], when CAR bottomed out at 12.7% before rising to 28-43% in the next 8 years. Dividends halted in the 5 years between '02-'06.

 

 I bought it today after stalking the stock for many months & was delighted to get a fill at  ¥2,778, just two ticks above the intraday low & with 63% of the commission discounted by the close. This is a price barely above the '95 low of ¥2,750, when the yen's strength was a headwind rather than the tailwind which it is now in light of the export ratio exceeding 40%.

Possible risks? The de facto China boycott of Japanese exports due to the recent political spat & maybe incursion into high quality piano-making by that country. Also interesting is the fact that my entry point was first surpassed way back in 1960[!] before the price declined nearly 90% from its 1961 peak of ¥3,870 by 1969. The old record was approached once again in 1973, followed by a 46% drop by the tail end of the 1974 bear market. It rose above this entry level price the next year & did not revisit this price despite a 65% decline from the 1976 fresh record of ¥8,180 in the following 5 years. Post '85 Plaza Accord, the stock nearly quintupled in the Bubble Era to set a fresh high of ¥15,200 by Feb '90. Based just on the intervals between historic highs, Kawai's next peak could come in '30 -'31, perhaps on the wave of what some project as 100,000 points on the Nikkei index!

Another area of concern is that free cash flow is (¥3.989 billion), accompanied by operating cashflow of (¥1.698 billion) in '25.  

A 44% discount to book that I obtained, backed by a forecast EPS that is double '25's figure, plus the maintained 3.4% dividend, will be comprise a buffer of safety for this investment choice that could bear fruit as early as March!

*As an aside, I have honed my piano playing skills on a Kawai instrument that has lasted 45 years & still works well despite some very minor issues: a testament to the quality of their product!