It's almost a No-Brainer to Buy Poh Kong Now!

 

I have been mystified throughout 2025 about why the price of jeweler, goldsmith & merchant Poh Kong has not tracked the price of the soaring yellow metal. Quarterly net profit has increased 6-fold since 2020 & 3-fold since 2012, yet the stock has barely doubled since 5 years & 13 years ago. Revenue outpaced this price growth somewhat by more than doubling since those two years, & dividend quantum per share has doubled since 2012 so these measures are more understandable in explaining this lack of animal spirits in the shares. However, book value, which includes the company's inventories of gold and silver, which are both rocketing in US$ terms, has soared $1.11 since 2020 & $1.57 since 2012 while the stock has only added 53c & 69c since those years respectively.

In local $ terms, the bafflement is even more stark with the gold price per ounce at around $18,500 now versus an average of $7,606 in '20 & $5,713 in '12. Silver has of course rocketed 163% since its '20 peak & is 59% above its late '11 zenith. Probabilistically, both shiny metals look like they are near a steeple top formation that was seen in 1980 & 2011 given the magnitude & stunning speed of the recent rises and this is perhaps why the two remaining local listed jewelers' prices have barely registered these appreciations in '25 [the most recent high was $1.35 in May '24 when gold was around US$2,300 an ounce]. In '12, Poh Kong belatedly rose 68% the year after gold peaked, so perhaps one can expect a more sparkling share price next year! 

On the technical chart, the MACD crossovers [ indicated in green diamonds] have a 90% accuracy in predicting price rises & bolstered by the intactness of the major uptrend line, points to a target of at least $1.60 by 1Q '26. The major downtrend line in place since its record high of $1.80 in Aug '20 seems to have been broken & minor ones seem to be pointing to at least $1.28-1.35 in the near term. 

The 2026 dividend yield is currently at a decent 2.5%, slightly inferior to the risk-free rate.

Beyond 5 Years : Sanken Electric サンケン電気 Takes the Baton to another Record 🎌 Earnings mark in '25 after Christmas !!! {26th Dec 25}

 

A day after the worldwide X'mas market break & 2 days after finally besting 2023's highest ever earnings, Sanken Denki サンケン電気 , a speculative purchase on Nov 13th while I attended the annual shareholder meeting of winner #84 Sime Darby , brings the tally to within ONE stock of doubling the old record of 23, #45 of '25 also becoming the 112nd in 101 months & the 113th overall this year! ¥ earnings also stand 3.7% above the aforementioned '23 high watermark & 14,5% above last year's earnings!

Beyond 5 Years : Takeover target Sawafuji Denki 澤藤電機 Achieves Record 🎌 Earnings in '25 before Christmas !!! {24th Dec 25}

Despite doubling thetally from '24, it's only on Christmas Eve that '25 finally surpasses '23's recordearnings, thanks to Sawafuji Electric 澤藤電機, a 117-year-old outfit that will be delisted on a takeover, my TENTH one since '19 on the 76th Anniversary of its listing...the Hino associate thus becomes the 44th/111th contributor in '25/since '17 to motor the high watermark forward!!! With 3 Japanese takeovers last year, '25 thus avoids a complete whitewash just a week before the calendar year closes out ! Merry Christmas from Japan to Me!

Beyond 5 Years : Coastal Contracts Returns after 4 years to sail the Marathon to a New Milestone !!! {23rd Dec 25}

 Last contributing in '16,' 17, '19 & '21, Coastal Contracts returns to the scoreboard 2 days after an instinctive purchase, subsequent to a month-long stalking, the 111th scorer in '25 sailing the streak to December 23rd a day after announcing a $4 billion contract from Petroleos Mexicanos[PEMEX] !

Beyond 5 Years : Thermae-Yu テルマー湯 / Econach Matches Sime Darby's Hat3rick !!! {22nd Dec 25}

 

Onsen owner Thermae-Yu テルマー湯, formerly Econach for the last quarter century & originally Nippon Lace since its founding 99 years ago, contributes a hat-trick within the year after paying its first dividend since 1969, to propel the record towards Christmas against gargantuan odds!!!

Beyond 5 Years : #84 Sime Darby Scores a Hat3rick !!! {19th Dec 25}

 

The baton passes from a foreign 'blue chip' to a local one as BMW distributor Sime Darby drives the record to new territory with a hat3rick & the first complete exit since 2018! Great is my gratitude at manifesting $323,748.78 in income since this miraculous, gargantuan streak began on 29th July 2020!

Beyond 5 Years : #110 Serves Up 2 in a Row, fueling the Run towards the 878th Consecutive Record since Aug 2022 !!! {18th Dec 25}

 

City Developments makes it 2 market days in a row as only the sixth scorer after Ellipsiz, Koh Brothers, Straits Trading, Bukit Sembawang & Great Eastern in '25 & EXITs, inching the run closer to 2026 with only seemingly left to hold the fort for its continuation...

Out of the box trading ideas: Kaji Tech 6391, Koyosha 7946, Tatsumo 6266, Yamato Motor Tpt 9082, Torishima Mfg 6363, Konoshima Chem 4026, Tanaka Precision 7218, Hamamatsu 6965, Arakawa Chem 4968, Ricoh 7752, Daishinku 6962, Torex 6616, Himaraya 7514[2], Nissha 7915[12], Sanrio 8136, Tamagawa 6838, Sumco 3436[12], Mitsui High-tec 6966[1], Takamizawa 5283, Odawara Eng 6149, NihonEnt 4829[5], Takatori 6338, MeiwaEst 8869, UMC Elec 6615, TohokuBk 8349, Shima Seiki 6222, Sanoh 6584, Okuma 6103, Azuma 9380, Achilles 5142, Iriso 6908,Sakae Elec 7567, Monex 8698, Kyoei Tanker 9130, Marubun 7537 

Stock Focus : Creative Technology

 

   Cash burn has slowed in the past year as indicated by the lower right-hand chart above while revenue has picked up somewhat in the last 2 years despite the increasing obsolescence of its namesake sound blaster products.

   Losses have narrowed such that EPS has improved from (27c) to (15c) in the last 3 years, yet total assets have almost halved to $64.5 million in the last 4 years, while its current assets have more than halved to $52.5 million, accompanied by a 65% reduction in cash holdings to $29.84 million. However, Grahamian net-net is still 41.3 cents [ 53.3 S'pore cents at 1.29 to the US$ ] albeit down from $1.065 in '21: ergo, it trades at a 19% premium to that liquidation value, compared to a 61% premium in '21. Debt has contracted 74% to just under $1 million since 2021.

   The estate of the late founder Mr. Sim, who passed away in January 2023, holds a substantial stake of a tad over 31%, or 23.27 million shares, while 6% or 4.603 million shares are treasury shares. 

   The stock goes through a price explosion every 3-8 years, the previous occasions being 1997, 2000, 2004, 2009, 2012, 2018, 2020 & 2023. After its June 1994 dual NASDAQ-SES IPO at S$25.80, it rose over S$32 briefly before plunging to S$4.98 in 1996 & then soaring to over S$70 the next year, dropping 2/3 & then re-attaining its old peak again during the dot.com bubble which will remain its all-time high likely for all eternity!

   Possible catalysts for the next rocketing include a diversification into sound hardware applications for AI, a sale of valuable patents, a takeover of a cheap NASDAQ listing by another high technology entity or perhaps an old-fashioned ramp to allow the surviving beneficiaries of Sim to cash out!

    I was last involved from 2015-2018 when I bought some at S$1.76 & averaged down at just over S$1.05 in early 2017, but unfortunately sold too early above S$2.00 in the early stages of its 2018 rocketing to S$10, earning about M$1,000 in the process.

   The bullish candlesticks & low volume pullbacks of late [ see below ] look promising for an early 2026 rocketing! Look for continued base-building & volume dry-ups during pullbacks and a higher high by early next year for confirmation of exciting action to come within 3 - 6 months. First target is 99c, followed by S$1.11-1.20 & then perhaps a re-test of $2.00.