EQUITYOPPORTUNITY

Monday, July 01, 2024

Buy and HOLD is no joking matter! Ask longtime Econach [ エコナック] shareholders...

The company was listed in 1949, the year the Tokyo stockmarket re-opened in earnest after WWII ended & was founded as a textile company called Nippon Lace in Kyoto 23 years prior, which will make 2026 its centennial. It deworsified (to borrow a Peter Lynch term) into bowling alleys in the '70s, cosmetics in the '80s & real estate in earnest in 2006, after dabbling there for over half a century & had a name change to Econach in '01. Since '15, it has gone into the hot springs [in Kabukicho] & bath & spa[in Nishiazabu] business while renting out Tokyo real estate, withdrawing completely from cosmetics in '17 & textiles in '20.

The last dividend paid was way back in 1969 & it was a perennial loss-maker, with the exception of a record ¥ 123* EPS in '85, fueled by turnover that fluctuated between  ¥ 656 million in 1957 [as far back as I can find] to ¥ 7.994 billion in 1974, hovered around ¥ 4.2 billion &  ¥ 4.6 billion between 1983 to 1985, back down to ¥ 512 million in 2002 & has since fluctuated between ¥ 800 million &  ¥ 1.9 billion between 2006 to 2018. Since Covid, revenue has bounced back from  ¥ 599 million in '21 to  ¥ 1.892 billion in '24, growing 25%, 87% & 34% in the last 3 years, with EPS turning around from (¥ 7.4) to ¥ 3.6 this year & a forecast ¥ 4.9 next year. In its worst days in '96-'98, EPS ranged from (¥ 46to (¥ 66)*.

Long-term holders, voluntary or otherwise, who chased the stock to a high of ¥ 1,540* in 1953, would have had to wait 30 years for the price to climb to breakeven whereupon it nearly quadrupled to ¥ 6,400* that year, shrank by 2/3 to a low of ¥ 2,096* in Apr '87 & rewrote its record to ¥ 7,360* in July '90.

Financials have improved greatly with CAR rising from 32% in 1996 to 78% at the latest check, compared with 45% in 1989, 51% in 2002 & a high of 91% in 2010 after the near-insolvency of 1997-1998 which saw -ve CAR & working capital , while book value has more than doubled from a low of just under ¥ 70* in 2006 to nearly ¥ 179 now, after reaching ¥ 546* in '85 & plummeting to (¥ 24.4)* in '97.  Total assets were ¥ 9.7 billion in 1973 [after which it sold some of its properties to stanch losses], nearly ¥ 4 billion in the '80s but plunged to ¥ 1.23 billion in the late '90s & have now breached the ¥ 6 billion mark going in the other direction while attaining net cash position, with the share issues of '02 @¥ 160* ,'06 ¥ 540*  & '13 likely contributing positively. 

Drawn by its reversal from net-net -ve to slightly +ve this past year & impressed by the central Tokyo location of its properties [widely reported to be rising even as the yen tumbles], I have taken a small position today @ ¥ 134.33, amazed to be give the opportunity to buy it BELOW its pre-bubble low of ¥ 140* in '71 & not far from its all-time near-insolvency nadir of ¥ 68* in Dec '97, ¥ 100* in '11 & ¥  125 this year, which I'm convinced will be a multi-year low if the '53 to '71 pattern is repeated in '06-'25 {green-hexagoned} in the chart above: they are uncannily similar with the earlier subsidiary peaks occurring exactly 9 years apart, '53 & '62 vs '06 & '15. Since the '71 low came 19 years after the '53 apex, I expect the low has already passed or will come in '25 at the latest, 19 years after the '06 apex.

My target is the pre-Covid high of ¥ 300*to ¥ 320* {not far from the '50 low of ¥ 304*} , followed by the '15 high/'81 low of ¥ 680*.

*all figures adjusted for two 2:1 reverse stock splits in the last 10 years


dividends still to be received  as @ 2nd July : Shindengen, Tobishima,  Nippon Felt, Mochida, Tsutsumi, Orient, DaidoKogyo, Dijet, Origin, Aida, Futaba, Shikibo  

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