EQUITYOPPORTUNITY

Saturday, June 08, 2024

Technical (& fundamental?) reasons for the continued rise of Panasonic(M)


First target is the 0.382 Fib retracement of the fall from its '21 high of 33.40 to 17.54 = 23.60 while the next is the 0.382 Fib retracement of the drop from its all-time high of 41.90 in Aug '18 to 17.54 = 26.84, supported by the 6% dividend yield on the back of improving Y-o-Y results.

 

Looking at the quarterly results above, it can be seen that the market has been discounting the stock accurately, with the price back to early 2015 levels[orange-hexagoned], when its revenue was 2.8% higher & EPS 7.2% above the current FY. The peak EPS, dividend, book value & revenue are green-boxed & occurred in 4Q '21, 4Q '18, 1Q '19 & 3Q '18 respectively. Unsurprisingly, the record price was reached in the 3Q '17 till 3Q '19 timeframe, with a brief visit to $40.00 in 2Q '16, the year when the annual EPS peaked at $2.42. The 2nd highest prominent peak was a plateau-ing action between 2 Jun to 1 Jul '21, preceded by a $3 rise from $30 the week before the results encompassing the record high 75c quarter EPS & respectable $265.6 mil revenue was announced. With net profit declining 29.3% from its peak of $131 mil between '18 & '23, it remains to be seen if the trend of increasing annual EPS from 84c in '22 to 132c in '23 & 153c in '24 will continue...

However, if one may simplify: just discounting the price with the lower EPS compared the the peak number in '18 points to a 'fair price' target of $26.49.

Sale of Pintaras bought in 2023 @ $1.54 on 5th June: 




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