Rooftile maker Shinto (新東) DOUBLES the Stop High (Limit UP) JOY, rising ¥400 two successive days!

 

In after hours trading, it rises further by ¥220, holding open the possibility of hotly bullish price action next week! The IPO high was ¥3,250 in '01,exceeded briefly in the '22 ramp up to ¥3,475, which could be tested if this turns out to be one of those rare continuous ramping situations eg MT Genex & Nichidai in 2018.

Note that its book value is ¥4,650, which leaves room for upside since the Japan Exchange is virtually mandating ameliorative action [one of which is buybacks] by listed companies whose share prices are still below NTA. Corporate performance is mediocre, with revenue steadily declining from ¥7.5 billion in FY '01 to below ¥5 billion forecast in the latest year, with EPS down from a record ¥324.5 a few quarters subsequent to listing, to a high of ¥34.1 last year & a forecast of  ¥7.1 this coming year-end June '24, which makes its dividend quantum [ translating to 1.6% with the suddenly elevated price], which has remained unchanged since 23 years ago rather impressive! NTA was  ¥3,510 in '02, which equates to a third increase since listing. 

Capital adequacy ratio (an important financial metric in Japan ) has also improved from 35.5% in '01 to 52.2% now. Interesting also that 2 important major shareholders then and now have collectively increased their shareholdings slightly to over 15% from 14.8% then while the co. has bought back nearly 15% of its own shares, leaving a small 70% free-float of a ridiculously tiny share base of 831,682 shares, which is even less than the 1.45 million outstanding shares of Berkshire Hathaway, one of the smallest capitalized companies in the world today!

 *Disclaimer : I have owned Shinto shares since May 23rd '24

 

A 'dark cloud cover' candlestick marked the old ¥5,990 '87 top in Nomura

 

Interesting also to note that the Oct '87 Black Monday crash low almost coincided exactly with the 61.8% Fibronacci retracement of the entire move from the '82 low of ¥381 to the '87 peak.

Despite its huge rally in '24, the stock price is still less than 1/6th of its old high even though the Nikkei index is higher by about 1/3.

*Disclaimer : I have owned Nomura shares since Feb 6th '18

Battle lines, everybody!!!

 GE price & transaction volume as @ 2:40pm 13th May 2024:

There is certainly more than one person/institution who believes they can force OCBC's hand to raise their offer price of S$25.60 significantly to approach the so-called embedded value of S$36 in the 3rd takeover battle for Great Eastern in the last two decades going back to 2004,  with the price touching an intra-day high of S$26.22!

As the math goes today, the banking giant needs to corral another 7,557,241 shares to breach the 90% threshold to conduct a mandatory buyout & delisting, something it failed to accomplish in the previous two attempts. A certain Wong sibling pair holding 5,221,368 shares between them seem to be against the current offer, the former buying another 10,500 recently to consolidate his position at No.2 on the large holder ranking behind only the bank itself. The 3rd & 5th-ranked holders, Kuchai & Sungei Bagan, have held their shares since GE's listing over 50 years ago so are likely on the fence, although their loose affiliation to OCBC via the Lee Rubber nexus may sway them to accept the tabled price.

Of the remaining 44.81 million shares of unknown bias towards/against the offer, only slightly under 17% of them need to tilt their votes in OCBC's favour to start the ball rolling inexorably towards delisting, which I would assess at a 70/30 probability.

May the force be with the bold souls who dare to buy above the offer price!!!

*the writer has a small position in all 3 stocks mentioned above

 

 

Kuchai's significant 3.032 million stake in insurer Great Eastern is being courted by 88% owner OCBC for a sum equivalent to its entire market cap!

The upper trendline points to a theoretical $2.80 target, while the reverse H&S points to the $2.47-2.50 level. 

At least 2 interventions by the BoJ ? Temporarily ending my cheapened yen shopping spree online!