Market Thoughts for 12 Feb 2014:

- US market, having risen 4 days in a row, and registering its 3rd 3-digit gain within that, will probably suffer profit-taking, if not a 3-digit sell-off, as early birds who picked the recent market bottom, take gains off the table. The best case scenario for the bulls that I can see, which I estimate has a 30% probability or less, is that the market recovers smartly from acute profit-taking earlier in the session. I would put the probability of another 3-digit gain at less than 5%.

- Personally, I have $13,575 worth of purchases made on Friday, due for payment today, of which I only intend to pay for slightly over half, about $7,850 while taking profit on the rest, amounting to an estimated $434, after commissions.