Against the Goliath of Adversity, BELIEVE in miracles!!!

 

Finally SOLD nearly 62% of my Naim holding...

 ...achieving a nearly 43% reduction in margin debt while simultaneously wiping out any further interest chargeable on my Naim shares, with the remaining 10,700 shares fully paid up, via selling 3 batches over the last 3 trading days of the week @ $1.0386, $1.0397 & $1.0094. 

The breakeven level on my original 5,300 shares bought in '15-'16 & averaged down using this margin commitment in '23 is now permanently frozen @ 96.774c while an additional 5,200 shares recently re-purchased for an average 83.421c is now showing a nearly $800 paper gain. Thus I can almost immediately sell these & recover every cent of my original ill-timed investment that nonetheless returned $944.90 in dividends in '20-'21.

The lifetime tally on this stock since my 1st involvement back in 2013 rises to $3,381.98, so miraculously ending a huge longstanding paper loss & rewarding a bold, albeit early, deployment of risky margin capital !

Naim is FINALLY ready to break the $1 mark...

 

The Naim:Dayang price ratio is now at 0.371, which is barely above the all-time low very recently of 0.328 on 21st March.  Measured move theory could be pointing to a target as high as $1.14-1.15 within 3 months.

Unbeknownst to me, until now, a TAKEOVER offer for my Soshin Electric was made 3 days ago by Kamaya Electric!

 

The offeror is a Taiwanese company & the TOB is being made at a 32% discount to the co's book value. I originally speculated that it would make a quasi- double bottom formation spanning the 2020-2023 period but instead it declined another -18% to finally bottom around Christmas. In early March there was a strong intra-day surge to ¥366 on higher than usual volume: apparently insiders were busy snapping up the shares ahead of  the TOB announcement. My original prediction of a double bottom was vindicated, BUT  on the daily timeframe instead of the monthly one, spanning the Dec/Feb period at ¥283 / ¥284. Only on digging deeper did I become aware of a prior ¥460 offer by the same co. in Dec '20 that resulted in Kamaya replacing NGK as the 40.4% major shareholder ( the latter retaining a 5% stake), which nonetheless did not prevent the share price decline to below ¥300.

The offer is at a 38% premium to my entry price almost 7 months ago, with one tiny dividend already pocketed. The chances of an increased offer is 40% by my estimation since the co. recommends the TOB. It's my THIRD takeover involvement after Teraoka Seisakusho in October & Chuo Built in December. The former ended its 37-year history as a listed company earlier this month, my 2nd biggest Japanese earner in my 7th year of involvement in the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Good ol' Japanese blue-chip Panasonic(formerly Matsushita Industrial) rounds out a record FIFTEEN this week!

 The Gainers' List(22/3/24):

1. Nomura +65%              ¥192,300

2. Tomita E  +28%           ¥164,000

3. Katsuragawa +58%   ¥85,500

4. Seikoh Giken +37%    ¥177,100

5. Fujix +10%                     ¥172,600

6. Nichiwa S +27%            ¥59,500

7. Ogura Clutch +4%       ¥333,300

8. Aida Eng +15%               ¥87,900

9. Kuroda P +9%               ¥136,100

10. Fujisash  +10%              ¥87,500 

11.Mochida Pharma +4% ¥323,800

12. Ono Sokki +33%       ¥62,000

13. Nepon +6%                ¥182,700

14. Panasonic +7%         ¥144,300 

15. Shindengen E +4%  ¥313,000

Forget NEXT week, a miracle manifested TODAY!

The biggest Japanese investment bank-cum-broker, Nomura, soared past its ¥980 high in 2013 at the height of the Abenomics euphoria, before losing 2/3 of that price by 2019, which was a year after I participated as an equity owner for the 1st time ever.

Heartbreak in 2021 when a+20% paper gain was wiped out & turned into an immediate paper loss when the Archegos debacle, in which the co. lost $2 billion financing the market rigging by a Korean fake rich wannabe, turned into redemption late last year when the stock price nudged above my ¥596.90 breakeven. Although I did sell 60% of my position for a ¥17,305.11 profit far too early on hindsight( in the ¥630 & ¥810 range), such things are highly unpredictable & nonetheless contributed to a much-coveted gain(+dividend) in advertising heavyweight Dentsu.

The coming days will reveal if it can convincingly bust through the ¥1,000 threshold, a level unseen since 2008!!!

The number of Japanese paper gainers also nudge up to a record 14 as Shindengen Electric rises 1.28% to pass the breakeven point of ¥3,133 on a long position initiated Dec 3rd & Fujisash sits right on its own breakeven point from a long position entered October 2020!