🎌 Stock Focus : Olympus オリンパス [7733]

 

Although the maker of therapeutic & surgical instruments is trading 8.3% above its old high in the previous generation, the annual dividend is also 3.75x higher than its previous highest in 2008 & book value was 60% lower than currently, although projected '26 revenue is also 12% lower than the still-standing record of ¥1.128875 trillion back then. Total assets have increased 55% since seven years ago when the price was slightly lower & capital adequacy has advanced eight % points since then to 53%.

Olympus is also coming off a record ¥199.9 EPS in '24 [which was foreshadowed strangely 2 years in advance with a record ¥3,198 stock price 20 months before this concretized number was announced] & projected FY EPS to be announced in May is 80% lower than that figure. This still implies a PE of a tad over 29 which beats many overvalued tech stocks now pummeled by AI fears!

As evidenced by the snapshots above, this storied company has seen massive Bubble Era writedown losses of roughly ¥50 billion in each of the years 2009 & 2012 which was accompanied by a massive drop in NTA from a peak of ¥263.8 in '08 to ¥33.6 at its worst in '12 when the stock price cratered at ¥106 [ NTA is ¥666.54 currently ].

Today I was fortunate enough to finally bag the stock for my portfolio at a 7.4% discount to the low on the 1st day of the Lunar New Year when I first put in a buy order & also for M$35 cheaper than the volume-weighted average of ¥1,448.498 today & additionally, at a 2-tick discount to last year's Trumpanic low, at the close! Today is also the 7th day of falls in the last 8 days post- its 43% quarterly profit decline announcement on Feb 13th. 

I have a 95% conviction of earning by end-March at the very latest & will be a happy seller at its 3-month-ago high of ¥2,168 but can flee at its ¥1,605.5 Jun '25 low-turned resistance!