How HIGH will the Nikkei & TOPIX go in the current bullish phase & when will they peak?

 

Many securities firms are putting their targets between 41-44,000 points for the Nikkei index while a survey on the timing of the peak interestingly showed almost 40% bet on December, which according to past time-to-peak-after-breaking-the-high episodes, reflects the minimum duration of the new upmove to its zenith. However, in 1988, the bull market lasted another year & a half till the peak on Dec 29, 1989 while the ones in 2017 & 2020 lasted about 4 months each. My own personal target is 45,866 as a simple measured move from the recent 6,994 low in '08 of the entire 1950 to 1989 move from 85.25 to 38,957.44 high. 

However, the most recent example in 2023 lasted over a year, which means that the coming apex could occur as late as April-August 2026, depending on the tailwind factors !

Possible tailwinds include the continued lower inflation trend postponing BoJ rate rises & divestment of US bonds as the FOMC base rate is expected to be lowered eventually & reducing the attractiveness of holding US currency assets as the greenback weakens. Another major tailwind is the ongoing pressure for corporate Japan to accelerate reforms to increase their attractiveness to foreign funds & the visible trend of listed companies ramping up dividend payouts from healthy surpluses, backed by growing real estate valuations & collateral. 

However, if the yen strengthens too rapidly, this could spark selling in exporters & dampen the Nikkei's march northwards.