Daiwa Securities Purchased just 0.2 yen above the Aug 5th '24 Black Monday low

                                                        

                                                                                                     

   The intra-day low of ¥845.1 will likely be renewed on Monday with the Dow industrials dropping more than 2,200 points Friday, despite my maiden entry being -22% on its 2025 high & -37% down from its 52-week peak, on a prospective 5.1% yield. 

 Discounting from its ¥103.9 peak EPS in 2006 suggests a fair value of  ¥980.5 while a similar comparison with its 2021 EPS produces a fair value of just over ¥840.5. Using the 2000 peak EPS, which is 90% of the latest EPS of ¥84.9 and extrapolating from its Aug 2000 low & its Mar 2001 lows gives us a fair value range of  ¥777.5 to ¥976.5. Six months after it announced a big loss of  (¥98) per share, the stock bottomed at ¥411 and it double-bottomed at around ¥430 five months later in Apr '03, a month before disclosing a much improved (¥4.7) per share for FY '03. The stock rebounded swiftly to a high of ¥995 in Oct '03 and after a -36% drop within 2 months, rebounded back to double-bottomed at around ¥933 exactly a year after the secondary bottom of 2003. After completing a consolidation 'triple bottom' of around ¥640 in Dec '03, Oct '04 & Apr '05, the price discounted the surges in EPS from ¥31.7 to ¥37.5 & beyond ¥100 in 2006 before dropping to ¥67.9 in 2007 & halving to ¥33.7 in '08 before turning red again [ (¥63.2) ] in 2009. Despite '06's peak EPS falling 35% the next year, the stock managed to best its May '06 peak of ¥1,672 by 1 tick in end Feb '07! I aim to sell on such a rebound within the year, or at least a resurgence similar to the 47% rally from its Jan '08 low of  ¥809 to ¥1,187 in June that year. Comparable nadir EPS are (¥62.5) in 1997, (¥43.2) in 1998, (¥32.4) in 1992 &  (¥23.5) in 1995.