After nibbling at Nestlé M'sia shares lately, I finally buy my first hundred shares since Apr 2014!

  The local food giant's shares have been in a precipitous fall since announcing a 72% contraction in 4Q '24 profit, breaking the $100 mark decisively & touching a new low of $61.80 today on what seems like desperate panicked selling by big funds all rushing through the narrow door of illiquidity, given that 72.6% of all outstanding shares are held by the Swiss parent Nestlé SA & the EPF has been increasing its stake from below 16 million [6.8%] shares in 2021 to almost 29.9 million [12.7%] as of the last report. 

  If it can be conservatively estimated that a further 4% of outstanding free float is unshakeable due to long-term horizons of relevant holders, the number of shares in weak hands amount to just over 30 million. About 10% of this figure has been traded in the last 17 market days [~ 2.9 million] and on top of being motivated by the lowest profitability since 2010, could also be fueled by the desperation of funds seeking to lock in any paper gains accumulated over the years before they vanish completely!

  A big Fibronacci target of $65-66 [0.618] based on its IPO price of $5 & its all-time low of $7 in '91 has been punctured in the last couple of days, Based on the earliest obtainable revenue & net profit over 34 years ago, projected from the IPO price & its lowest price recorded of $6.50 to the current diminished $415.6 million net profit now, versus an estimated $60 million after tax profit back then, conservative fair value is between $48 - $56.50, significantly below the current quotation.

  Many long-term retailers may also be panicking in the current selloff, and so irrationality seems to be the key price driver at the moment, augmented by the 'terrible' numbers & the 17-month boycott movement due to the Israeli attacks on Gaza & Lebanon. The boycott by emotionally-charged natives is ultimately tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot as many factory workers and marketing/distribution employees are likely to be Malay & the company could easily implement massive layoffs to streamline operations & maintain profitability. As distressing & intense as the current bout of selling may be for existing shareholders, the volumes are still dwarfed by the record 5.053 million shares traded on 30th Nov '17, the 1.348 million traded on 30th Nov '23 & the figure of 800,000+ shares traded on individual days in Feb '09, Jun '12, Feb '13 & Nov '16. Further back, 1.835 million shares were traded on 14th Jun '00, 0.653 & 0.678 million traded on 31st May & 1st Jun '06, 0.599 on 12th Aug '98 & 1.663 million on 3rd Feb '98. 

   Personally, having earned $410 in dividends holding from Apr '14 till Aug '15 & $256 in capital gains selling above $71.50 after buying at $68.52, I draw on my 30+ years in the markets to guesstimate that the rebound is just days away, if not by tomorrow! I am mentally prepared for it to fall to $56 or lower, but believe it's unlikely to happen in a straight line from here! My intuition suggests that the stock price could revisit $88 on the next rebound as more rational market moves reassert themselves among both funds & retailers. A 5-10% margin of error is common in these knife-catching semi-speculations.