EQUITYOPPORTUNITY

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

What's with the huge underperformance of Naim to Dayang?

Since early '22, the price of Naim, which holds 24.22% of Dayang has been diverging more & more from the price of the latter, with the widest gap seen in Feb '23 (70% points) & Nov '23(90% points). 

As of the morning of the last day of Jan '24, this gap has expanded beyond 80% with the latter rising 2% to $1.91 on news of an extension on a maintenance contract while the former is down over 1% with no news flow. My best guess is that the sellers are:

1) stale bulls from last year, dumping on likely disappointment of non-progress
2) remnant '18 rights subscribers who are raising cash for whatever reason
3)  insiders/short-sellers who have wind of a possible poor quarterly result to be announced(?)

There's also a total absence of sponsors who are usually needed to move the stock up by 5% or more on lack of leads.

However, from a strictly fundamental standpoint, its stake in Dayang itself is worth more than $1.05 per Naim share & that doesn't even factor in the locked-up treasury shares($1.08-$1.09 if they were subtracted), meaning that the co. is 'paying' investors 25 sen to own its net cash balance sheet loaded with properties & land at the current price. 

Historically though, the larger co. has outperformed the smaller one, especially during oil & gas booms(2013-2014) & speculative booms(2019) although the ratio of the Naim/Dayang price is approaching the all-time low of 0.378 should the one continue to rise & the other to stagnate.

As Dayang is likely to test $2.00 with a strongly uptrending chart, Naim has a better than 50/50 chance of revisiting the $1.00 mark it last saw in 2020.
 
 

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home