Nikkei New Record Probability upgraded to 62%

 

Chart uptrend is very strong, with the October selloff handily neutralised in November! December being a traditionally strong month(except in 1950,1953, 1956-57, 1961, 1963, 1966-67, 1977, 1987, 1991, 1996-98, 2011, 2015, 2018 & 2022) & some technical indicators resembling the beginning of the famous bubble era in 1985-1986, with big money taking profits conspicuously from expensive stocks like Nidec, Sony, Yamaha & Shiseido while severely undervalued lower liners await the shift of these funds to other speculative outlets with the central bank unwilling (& unable without damaging the inflation-resurrected economy) to raise interest rates significantly, the index will likely be carried up to its 34-year-ago record & possibly beyond by these smaller laggard stocks.

Set against this is both the Nikkei & the Topix reaching their upper trendlines, heading into 2024, which marks both the 3-year interval from the 2021 peak( 3 years from the '18 tops, which was itself 3 from the '15 peak) & the 8-year interval from the 2015 peak( 8 years from '07 major top, which was itself 7 from the '00 zenith). Furthermore, the 38% probability of the nullification of the above record is attributable to the continued inflation &  its upward pressure on currently antiquated zero-interest monetary policy as well as a series of poor quarterly results from listed companies in 1H '23.